(NationRise.com) – On July 10, a Decision Desk HQ prediction revealed that the Republican Party has a 65 percent chance of maintaining its majority in Congress. Some political analysts said the prediction wasn’t a surprise, as many polls have already shown that the GOP not only has plenty of chances of keeping its majority in the House but also recovering the Senate and the White House.
While many have said that the MAGA faction of the Republican Party has been detrimental to the GOP’s interests in recovering the upper chamber sooner, some experts have said that the Democratic Party may lose it because of its progressive faction. Many have also explained that the increasing popularity of former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump may also help the GOP to recover the Senate and control the legislative and executive branches if he wins the presidential election.
When explaining its prediction about the GOP maintaining House majority, DDHQ Director Scott Tranter said that the Republican Party will win 11 of 16 “tossup races.” He also explained that the high chances of maintaining its majority were unexpected because the GOP was experiencing severe chaos in January and last year’s December. In those months, then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was facing what many referred to as a rebellion from some MAGA Republicans who wanted to oust him, as they claimed that he wasn’t committed enough to the conservative agenda.
Tranter also said that the generic ballot for the GOP has been “unusually” positive overall, as we’re currently in the year of a presidential election that has been trickling down to some Congress races. He explained it was possible that reality has been favoring Republicans who will try to maintain their seats in Congress through reelection and those who are making efforts to flip some seats.
Regarding the presidential election, he explained that the DDHQ model predicts that Trump has a nearly 60 percent chance of beating US President Joe Biden.
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