China’s Nuclear Arsenal DOUBLES Overnight

Jet with 31001 marking behind barbed wire fence.

China just doubled its nuclear arsenal in a decade, and the world’s superpowers are abandoning the last treaty that kept them in check.

Quick Take

China’s nuclear warheads grew from 260 in 2015 to 600 by 2025, with projections reaching 1,000 by 2030
US officials revealed seismic evidence of secret Chinese nuclear tests, including one in June 2020
The New START Treaty expired February 5, 2026, removing the last bilateral constraint on US-Russia arsenals
The Trump administration is pushing for resumed nuclear testing and a new trilateral treaty including China
Arms control experts warn this marks the beginning of an unconstrained nuclear arms race reshaping global security

The Arsenal That Doubled in a Decade

China’s nuclear warhead count has accelerated at a pace that caught even seasoned defense analysts off guard. In 2015, China possessed roughly 260 warheads. By 2025, that number had more than doubled to 600. Current projections suggest it could reach 1,000 by 2030, fundamentally altering the global nuclear balance. This expansion occurred while the US and Russia remained bound by New START, a treaty that excluded China entirely, creating an asymmetry that Washington now views as untenable.

Secret Tests and Seismic Evidence

On February 6, 2026, US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno made explosive accusations at the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. He alleged China conducted secret nuclear tests, including one in June 2020, without transparency or international oversight. Eleven days later, Assistant Secretary Christopher Yeaw released seismic data from Kazakhstan confirming evidence of nuclear testing activity incompatible with non-nuclear operations. China immediately denied the allegations, claiming the US provided no factual evidence. The dispute highlights a critical ambiguity: experts debate whether certain Chinese activities violate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty or exploit gray areas in its definitions.

The Treaty That Just Expired

New START, the last major arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow, expired on February 5, 2026. For sixteen years, it capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 per side and required mutual verification. Russia suspended its participation in 2023, and the treaty’s lapse removes the final constraint on US-Russia buildups. The Trump administration now openly discusses resuming nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and demands China’s inclusion in any future agreement. Without New START, the world enters uncharted territory.

Three Powers, Three Arsenals, Zero Agreements

The numbers reveal why Washington is alarmed. The US maintains 5,177 total warheads, with roughly 3,700 deployed. Russia possesses 5,459 total warheads, with approximately 4,300 deployed. China’s 600 warheads pale in comparison numerically, but the trajectory is what matters. A 1,000-warhead arsenal by 2030 represents a capability China lacked a generation ago. Meanwhile, Russia tested its Poseidon nuclear torpedo in December 2025, demonstrating new delivery systems. The trilateral dynamic that Cold War strategists never had to manage is now the defining challenge.

Why Transparency Matters More Than Numbers

China’s strategic ambiguity complicates arms control. Beijing refuses dialogue with Washington on nuclear limits, maintains opacity about its arsenal’s true size, and continues expanding underground test sites. This opacity contradicts the verification-based model that enabled US-Russia arms control for decades. Arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis notes that China and Russia operate in gray areas of testing restrictions, conducting activities that may not technically violate treaties but undermine their spirit. Without transparency, negotiating limits becomes nearly impossible.

The immediate consequences are sobering. US defense spending will surge to modernize aging systems. Regional allies in the Indo-Pacific, particularly Australia, face heightened uncertainty. North Korea and Iran may accelerate their own weapons programs, interpreting the collapse of arms control as permission to pursue nuclear capability. The non-proliferation regime, already fragile, weakens further with each failed negotiation.