Apple is set to make history by surpassing Samsung in global smartphone shipments for the first time since 2011, driven by the soaring success of the iPhone 17.
Story Overview
- Apple projected to lead in smartphone shipments in 2025 for the first time in 14 years.
- Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple shipping 243 million iPhones versus Samsung’s 235 million.
- The successful launch of the iPhone 17 is a key driver of Apple’s resurgence.
- Structural market factors favoring Apple include the smartphone replacement cycle and economic conditions.
Apple’s Resurgence in the Smartphone Market
Apple’s anticipated victory over Samsung in 2025 marks a pivotal shift in the smartphone market. For the first time since 2011, Apple is expected to lead in smartphone shipments, a testament to its strategic product launches and favorable market conditions. Counterpoint Research projects Apple will ship approximately 243 million iPhones in 2025, surpassing Samsung’s 235 million units. This shift indicates Apple’s ability to capitalize on the current smartphone replacement cycle and its stronghold in the premium market segment.
Apple projected to beat Samsung in smartphone shipments for first time since 2011 https://t.co/HtFNYboNpL #FoxBusiness
— Fearless45 (@Fearless45Trump) November 26, 2025
The introduction of the iPhone 17 series has been crucial to Apple’s resurgence. The lineup, including the iPhone Air, has captured consumer interest, driving significant demand. This rise in popularity is attributed to both the innovative features of the iPhone 17 and the timing of its release, aligning with a wave of consumers entering their upgrade phase after purchasing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Samsung’s Challenges and Market Dynamics
Samsung’s prolonged dominance in the smartphone market faces challenges from multiple fronts. While it maintains a strong market presence with a diversified product portfolio, the pressure from Chinese manufacturers in the mid-range and budget segments is mounting. These competitors are eroding Samsung’s market share, complicating its strategy to retain leadership. As Apple advances, Samsung’s growth is projected at a modest 4.6% year-over-year, compared to Apple’s 10% surge.
The global smartphone market in 2025 reflects broader geopolitical and economic trends. Trade tensions between the US and China have eased, benefiting Apple’s supply chain by reducing tariff impacts. Furthermore, a weaker US dollar and improved economic conditions in emerging markets are bolstering Apple’s international sales, aiding its push to reclaim the top position.
The Role of Market Factors and Consumer Trends
Apple’s projected lead is not solely due to its latest product offerings; it’s also a result of structural shifts in consumer behavior and market dynamics. The COVID-19 pandemic created a significant cohort of devices that are now reaching the end of their typical replacement cycle. This scenario has generated an unprecedented demand for new models, with consumers showing a marked preference for Apple’s premium devices.
Counterpoint Research highlights the significance of these market dynamics, emphasizing that the replacement cycle’s inflection point is a key driver of Apple’s growth. This trend underscores Apple’s capacity to leverage long-term market factors rather than relying on short-lived gains.
Looking Ahead: Long-term Implications and Industry Changes
Apple’s projected leadership through 2029 suggests a sustained shift in the competitive landscape. The company is expected to maintain its advantage by continuing to innovate and expand its market reach. Plans for future product launches, including the budget-friendly iPhone 17e and a foldable iPhone, indicate Apple’s strategic focus on maintaining its market dominance across various price segments.
AND ALL FROM COMMIE CHINA …. Since CrAPPLE IS A COMMIE CHINESE COMPANY!!
Apple projected to beat Samsung in smartphone shipments for first time since 2011 https://t.co/FcP1ISXvHr #FoxBusiness
— Webster Phreaky (@WebsterPhreaky) November 26, 2025
For Samsung, the road ahead involves addressing competitive pressures from both Apple and emerging Chinese brands. The company’s ability to innovate and adapt its supply chain strategy will be critical in retaining its market share. As the industry evolves, the competitive dynamics between Apple, Samsung, and other key players will shape the future of the global smartphone market.
